The question that ArcLight systems have not yet been able to answer is: “Can the American communication infrastructure handle such a load?” Granted we have seen during events such as 9/11, Hurricane Sandy, etc., that communication is linked to a very weak system: The power grid. In the event of a loss of any meaningful amount of electrical power, a majority of the communication systems most Americans have come to rely on will be non-functional. For instance, those familiar with how “cell phone towers” work realize that, without electrical power, they are not functional at all. The point of the story is that communication is going to be a critical element in what is going on both in a tactical level as well as a sociological level. Once again, we have seen some forms of civil unrest in “pseudo-third-world” nations such as Egypt. The speed with which information moves can be lighting fast and can change the dynamics of a given situation almost instantly.
Another interesting series of findings by ArcLight systems is that of “hyper violence” in America. Americans for the most part, as stereotypical as this may sound, have been raised on a steady diet of violence, such that many though not all Americans are somewhat conditioned to be more violent. One might not think this is the case when compared to other nations, but realize the following information. In the Middle East, a land known for instances of absolute brutality, killing is done in the name of a cause viewed as “great” by those who take part in the violence. In America, the same level of violence can be seen over far more trivial things, such as incidents where people were getting killed over Air Jordan sneakers, etc. There have been a number of publicized incidents which show that the level of violence Americans are willing to commit on each other can at times rival those of more headline making nations such as those countries in the Middle East. Amazingly enough, such trivial acts of violence can be seen for the most part in minority communities. Of course there will be a select group of individuals reading this now saying, “Wait, that s racist.” No, those would be statistics, and this illustrates our next point quite nicely.
The reality of the situation is that one can fully expect inner city areas to be by far the most lawless and violent in terms of geographical stratification of chaos. ArcLight predicts inner cities to be most violent based upon pure statistics alone. Keeping in mind factors such as conditioned way of life, race, previous lifestyles,population density, as well as the person-to-resources equation. Given the factors, as we have outlined in other pieces that we have produced, it stands to reason that urban areas will be the least safe. Our systems have also factored in the multiple agendas that can be found in urban centers with each “group,” be it of national origin, race, etc., having its own way of going about things. We have used the Koreans in Korea-town during the LA riots of the 90′s as an example of a community pulling together for common defense. ArcLight data indicates that more closely knit communities within urban centers will attempt and in some cases succeed in doing essentially the same thing. We also have data indicating that inner cities will be the first to see levels of so-called martial law. ArcLight systemic data also indicates that there will be a serious bit of confusion between police and military initially leading the chaos to another level.
Looting for necessities like diapers. Photo credit: Unknown
As we have mentioned in other articles, one of the first natural reactions of law-abiding citizens will be to retreat to rural areas as far away from urban centers as possible. This, as many can already figure out, will create traffic and infrastructure related chaos as those particularly from wealthy suburbs attempt to escape what ArcLight data indicates will be a spread of lawlessness. The “flight” that will be seen is anything but a complete retreat, and ArcLight systemic data indicates that those bent on taking back cities and mowing down the resistance as ArcLight has come to call the less desirable members of society will mount attacks from rural areas. Only after a given period of time as the inevitable chaos in urban and suburban areas will be once more, like nothing that has ever been seen before in American history. From a non-linear mathematic standpoint, given all the various sociological tensions in suburban and urban areas of the United States, things will be too “hot” in military terms to be able to find any level of organization. Rather, there will be an initial phase of looting, chaos, self-serving destruction, as well as general lawlessness.
During this time period, we will see some of the new phenomenon take hold which will be unique to American civil unrest. As we mentioned earlier, suburbs are filled with two interesting demographics of which both have quite a bit of pent-up rage. Millennials and amazingly enough, their parents. While ArcLight data indicates that older “baby boomer” generation members will be somewhat more placid in their approach to a mass-scale civil unrest scenario, Millennials and more importantly, those younger will not be so placid. While a lot of effort has been made to pacify American society through various means we will not get into here, suffice it to say to that this pacification has worked to some degree. Throughout, however, the unseen threat is what ArcLight staffers are referring to “hyper-violent” Americans, once again those raised on a steady diet of mind altering substances as well as conditioned with media-driven messages of perpetual violence. While ArcLight does not “blame” violent video games as the games themselves are a product of society, what we would like to point out is the fact that the cerebral conditioning they have bestowed upon younger Americans will be a factor.
Role playing violent games allow for infinite kills without the fear of actually dying.
The more dangerous element of the sociological hand grenade is the fact that Millennials and those younger are quickly coming to grips that they have been cheated out of a future and cheated out of opportunity. With that in mind, from a sociological standpoint, we must realize that the rage America will see is beyond that of simple chaos for the sake of chaos, granted that element will be there. An even less comforting fact will be the fact that a lot of baby boomer generation members whose children in some cases are said hyper violent individuals would have watched their savings and retirement vaporized in a coming market crash/economic chaos. Overall citizen sentiment amongst middle class Americans will be that of violence and rage across a very broad age spectrum.
Another interesting bit of data ArcLight systems have discovered and we are still trying to quantify is the “school shooter” effect. We do not have a better term to apply to such a discovery just yet; however, what we will say is that amidst the chaos, “lone wolf” types as such individuals are often called will take advantage of the chaos in order to fulfill personal agendas. The “quiet kid” up the street or the “nice young man” that has been playing by the rules and quietly boiling over a long period of time will take the opportunity to unleash personal rage along with rage developed against society as a whole. The number and habits of these individuals are unpredictable at this time even to ArcLight systems. Suffice to say though such renegade and rogue individuals will not fit any one description in terms of looks, personality, etc., but rather will just be an overall looming factor in the equation of social chaos. One thing our systemic data does indicate is that these rogue or renegade types will be dangerous. Many of the types which choose to operate on their own will be amazingly intelligent, possibly in various ways well-trained, and once again very unpredictable. The only real demographic fact that ArcLight systems came up with in terms of this type of unique individual is the fact that they will most likely be from suburban areas more so than urban areas. ArcLight systems did use some profiling data from previous rogue school shooters/workplace shooters to compile a very vague and broad potential profile. Suffice to say, however, these rogue individuals will be more the “kill whatever gets in their way” type and represent a huge variable in an overall equation.
Charles Taylor, lay preacher and feared Liberian warlord. Photo credit: Nima Elbagir
Yet another piece of interesting data our systems have come up with is the potential for urban areas, already laden with gangs, to see the rise of “warlords” not unlike those seen in third-world nations. Even amidst failing efforts to maintain order in heavily built up areas, there will be the obvious opportunity for gang leaders to seize control of various “territories.” Those familiar with the way warlords function in other nations will realize that controlling key elements to daily survival will be their most effective tool for control. For instance, those that have read Tom Bowden’s “Blackhawk Down” will understand how Farrah Adid used UN food shipments to maintain control over a vast majority of Mogadishu. In a full on state of civil unrest/sociological breakdown, it stands to reason that the same could be seen in US cities. Once again, behavior as such is likely to be more common in urban centers with minority populations. Stratification in terms of compilation of said gangs may be along already existing lines or may fall back to racial alliances. ArcLight systems do not have enough information at this time to say one way or the other for sure.
Of course, as those with any sort of wealth and the ability to do so retreat from suburban areas it stands to reason that looting and so forth from within inner cities will spread outwards into the suburbs of major metropolitan areas. It would be at that point American civil unrest would be entering new territory in terms of overall dynamics. Most civil unrest events in America have been as we have stated before, limited to urban centers. The wide-spread “roving mob” effect as so often seen in other nations would likely be a first for most Americans to see. According to ArcLight systemic data it would be at that point real conflict would be seen. Those who live in various suburbs, some of which may have self-prepared by that time would face an attack/defend tactical situation. That is to say that there may be blocks, towns or even individual houses that choose to stay and defend property and person. ArcLight systemic data has not yet indicated what percentage of any given area that might be prepared to stand and fight (we will run studies on that at a later time). However, suffice to say that conflict in an attack/defend dynamic will most likely be seen. That sort of dynamic may be seen in urban areas too though on less of a scale because urban areas will be the hardest hit in terms of initial flash-over effect of overall sociological chaos. ArcLight systemic data indicates that type of attack/defend dynamic will also mean that many who choose to stay and defend will be local law enforcement personnel. Ultimately, what that effect will be is to add to overall chaos as once it is known that LEO’s (local law enforcement officers) are not reporting to work; chaos will spread even faster.
One thing ArcLight systems are working on as this article is being written is timing. We have gathered quite a bit of data in order to best determine in what time frame one can expect to see various mile-markers in terms of overall social breakdown. We have basic facts such as food supply, fuel reserves, so forth already compiled. However, ArcLight systems are not yet able to make a clear prediction in terms of timing regarding an overall failure of law and order. Those familiar with Hurricane Sandy in New York will realize that fuel reserves (even with some supply) ran out in about ten days. Food supplies lasted slightly longer though also ran out in a lot of cases. Supplies and basic necessities will be critical in determining the overall social dynamic of any given areas, with those areas that have more plentiful reserves obviously doing much better. In the next installment of this series, ArcLight staff will do it’s best to provide some sort of time frame as far as various notable dynamics regarding a long-term civil unrest situation. Something worth noting is that there will be a shift from retail/commercial store looting to private residence looting at some point. Once again, the timing of said dynamic shift depends heavily on how plentiful various basic necessity items are in any given area.
While we do realize that this piece is shorter than previous ones in the series, we have chosen to save Part 4 to describe in some detail what can be expected in terms of a response to “taking back” urban areas. In terms of a preview, ArcLight systemic data indicates that there will be some level of organization in rural areas which will deploy largely absent any official control. Perhaps a hodge-podge of tactical and survival “preppers,” the remnants of any local/state law enforcement, veterans and perhaps even elements of a disenfranchised military. Once again, we only have preliminary findings regarding such a situational dynamic. However. we are excited to see what ArcLight systems return in terms of plausible data. We may also release a Part 3.5, though because of the broadening nature of the topic here, exact data has been slightly more difficult to acquire. If more conclusions can be made from data on the “tactical sociological” nature of a breakdown in American society we will certainly disseminate the information in a Part 3.5.
University of Kentucky fans riot after WINNING a game. Photo Credit: Jonathan Palmer, AP.
A side note we would like to add in is that second to urban centers will be “college towns” as far as social volatility goes. We have already seen a dramatic increase in social chaos on college campuses over things as trivial as sports events. In fact some parties have turned into chaos for no reason other than an overall crowd mentality. Of course ArcLight systemic data indicates the tendencies for chaos on college campuses are not the problem, rather just a symptom of a far more dangerous underlying social condition. Once again, keeping in mind the geographic regions of the country, some of the more destructive examples of social unrest will be seen in and around these college towns. We will not get into the reasoning or the underlying social conditions that will inspire such destruction in this piece, though as ArcLight systems uncover more data we will be sure to share.
We would like to reinforce the fact that the first several months of civil unrest/civil revolt will obviously be the most volatile, not necessarily the most violent, but certainly the most fluid in terms of tactical situational dynamics. The adjustment process to a temporary new normal combined with the aforementioned pent-up middle class rage and resentment towards a political system, and various other races/classes (division intentionally pushed by the government) will mean an explosive level of chaos that has not been seen in America before. Those reading this series will also realize that we have not yet gone into any level of detail of how one can go about preparing for such a situation. We have produced articles on said topic for clients of ArcLight, and we do intend to produce a free reader version in the near future.